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Cold War 2.0? Russia Expands Force in Cuba!

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Are we witnessing the resurgence of global geopolitical tensions, harking back to a past marked by ideological rivalry and constant threat of conflict? Images of joint military exercises, reports of arms sales, and the growing speculation about the possible establishment of Russian military bases on Cuban and Venezuelan soil raise a red flag. What lies behind this strategic move by Russia in Latin America? And what are the implications for regional security and the role of the United States? Americas. continente americano.

Context/Current Situation

The relationship between Russia, Venezuela, and Cuba has intensified in recent years, transcending the economic sphere and entering the realm of military cooperation. This rapprochement occurs in a complex global scenario, marked by economic sanctions against Russia and increasing tensions with the United States and NATO. Americas. continente americano.

Venezuela, under the government of Nicolás Maduro, has been an important partner of Russia in the region, acquiring weapons and participating in joint military exercises. Cuba, in turn, maintains historical ties with Russia since the Soviet era and seeks to strengthen its defense in the face of persistent tensions with the US. But what is the real extent of this collaboration? Americas. continente americano.

In-Depth Analysis (with data)

The increase in Russian military presence in Venezuela and Cuba is not mere speculation, but a documented phenomenon analyzed by experts in geopolitics and international security. Data and reports reveal a concerning picture: Americas.

• Joint Military Exercises: In 2022, Venezuela and Russia conducted joint military maneuvers involving warplanes, ships, and ground troops. These exercises aim to demonstrate Venezuela’s defense capability and project Russian power in the region. A study by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) estimates that these exercises have increased by 30% in frequency over the last five years.
• Arms Sales: Venezuela has become one of the main buyers of Russian weapons in Latin America. Between 2001 and 2023, the country spent approximately 11 billion dollars on Russian military equipment, including Sukhoi fighters, attack helicopters, and air defense systems, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
• Military Technical Assistance: Russia also provides technical assistance and training to the Venezuelan and Cuban armed forces, contributing to the modernization of their equipment and the enhancement of their capabilities. The Russian government has publicly stated that over 1,000 Russian military technicians are currently in Venezuela, providing support and maintenance.
• Possible Military Bases: Rumors about the possible establishment of Russian military bases in Cuba and Venezuela have circulated in the international press. In 2019, a senior Russian government official mentioned the possibility of reopening a Russian military base in Cuba, reigniting the debate about Russian influence in the region. Although there is no official confirmation, the speculation raises serious questions about Russia’s intentions and the impact on regional security.
• Increase in Military Trade: A 2023 UN report noted a 15% increase in arms trade between Russia and countries in Latin America, with Venezuela and Cuba leading the imports.

These data demonstrate a clear Russian strategy to strengthen its military presence in Latin America, seeking to consolidate alliances and challenge US influence in the region. But why is Russia investing so much in this approach with Venezuela and Cuba? Americas.

Russia’s Motivations

Analysts point to several motivations for the growing Russian military presence in Latin America:

• Counterbalance to American Influence: Russia seeks to counterbalance US influence in its own sphere of influence, especially in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Military presence in Latin America serves as a reminder that Russia can project power in other regions of the world.
• Economic Interests: Arms sales and military cooperation generate significant revenue for Russia, which faces economic sanctions imposed by Western countries.
• Support for Allied Regimes: Russia offers political and military support to allied regimes, such as those in Venezuela and Cuba, facing internal and external pressures.
• Strategic Access: Military presence in Latin America can provide Russia with strategic access to natural resources and important maritime routes.

Impact for Brazil/World

The growing Russian military presence in Venezuela and Cuba has significant implications for regional security and for Brazil. Increased geopolitical tension in the region can lead to instability and raise the risk of conflicts. Americas.

For Brazil, the situation poses a challenge to its foreign policy, which traditionally seeks

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