Real dilemma: Accelerate the green transition or protect local industry?

Fabrica industrial com painéis solares no teto, representando transição verde

🌱 Introduction

The climate emergency demands a rapid energy transition, but local economies still rely on heavy industries such as steel, mining and automobiles. How can we balance the need for emissions reductions with the economic survival of communities and jobs? This article explores the challenges, solutions and possible actions.

1. Current Context

The scientific community warns that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the world must drastically reduce emissions by 2030. However, developing countries face a dilemma: invest in green industry or protect traditional sectors that provide jobs and GDP.

2. The Cost of an Accelerated Transition

Regional unemployment: factory closures affect entire cities.

Technological dependence: transition may require import of advanced equipment.

Economic inequality: areas without infrastructure miss out on opportunities.

3. Why protect local industry?

Jobs: Traditional industries support millions of workers.

Tax base: local sectors generate revenue and public investments.

Economic security: productive autonomy strengthens national sovereignty.

4. Just transition models

Rethinking industrial policy = promoting innovation + reusing workforce.

Requalification programs: training for working in the green economy.

Tax incentives: support for the modernization of factories for clean technologies.

5. Examples of Success in the World

Germany: “Energiewende” policy involves industry and consumers; focus on renewables + cogeneration.

Canada: Just Transition Fund supports coal communities with minimum income and technological innovation.

Brazil: incentives for solar and wind power plants in the Northeast generate new hubs of clean jobs.

6. Brazilian challenges

Poor infrastructure in green areas.

Equipment cost: renewable dam or environmentally friendly disposal?

Coordination between government, private sector and civil society.

7. Possible strategies

1. Map regions with the highest risk of industrial unemployment.

2. Create public-private funds for transition.

3. Invest in vocational education.

4. Attract clean energy companies with tax benefits.

5. Promote international partnerships for technology transfer.

8. Role of society

Conscious consumers: valuing sustainable products.

Social organizations: mobilization and training.

“Green” entrepreneurs: circular economy startups can generate local wealth.

9. Critical perspective

The transition is not just technological: it is social and cultural. Without broad dialogue, there will be exclusion and resistance. Fragmented policies can lead to setbacks or facade projects (“greenwashing”).

10. Conclusion

The dilemma between accelerating and protecting is not binary: it is possible to reconcile both. A national strategic plan, involving federal capillarity and regional investment, can ensure that the "green" transition preserves the dignity and income of industrial communities.

📚 References:

1. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC). Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Cycle (AR6). Geneva: IPCC, 2023. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/. Accessed: 23 June 2025.

2. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA). Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Paris: IEA, 2021. Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050. Accessed on: 23 June 2025.

3. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. A European Green Deal: Just Transition Mechanism. Brussels, 2020. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal. Accessed on: 23 June 2025.

4. GERMANY. Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. Energiewende – The Energy Transition. Berlin, 2024. Available at: https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/EN/Dossier/energy-transition.html. Accessed on: 23 June 2025.

5. BRAZIL. Ministry of Mines and Energy. National Energy Plan 2050. Brasília: MME, 2020. Available at: https://www.gov.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/plano-nacional-de-energia-2050. Accessed on: June 23, 2025.

6. SANTOS, Ana Clara; ALMEIDA, João Victor. Green jobs in Brazil: opportunities and challenges. Journal of Sustainable Development, São Paulo, v. 13, n. 2, p. 34–49, 2024. ISSN 2238-9035.

7. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024. Geneva, 2024. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/reports/fostering-effective-energy-transition-2024. Accessed on: 23 June 2025.

8. ILO – INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION. Green Jobs: Towards decent work in a low-carbon and sustainable world. Geneva: ILO, 2023. Available at: https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/lang--en/index.htm. Accessed on: 23 June 2025.

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