Iran vs Israel conflict: a new Yom Kippur and its global effects?

Geopolitical map highlighting Iran and Israel amid conflict

Introduction

Since the early 20th century, the Middle East has remained one of the epicenters of global instability. In 2025, tensions between Iran and Israel will once again escalate dramatically, rekindling fears of a new large-scale conflict, similar to the Yom Kippur War of 1973. This time, however, the consequences could be even more serious, given the geopolitical, technological and economic changes of the current scenario.

This Bom Dia América article analyzes the causes, developments and global implications of this new chapter in the rivalry between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

Understanding the historical context

Tensions between Israel and Iran are not new. After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran broke off relations with Israel and began supporting groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel, with the strategic support of the United States, maintained its policy of containment against Iranian influence in the region.

The 1973 Yom Kippur War involved Israel and a coalition of Arab countries, but the symbolism of that war—a surprise attack during a Jewish religious holiday—resurfaced in 2025 when Iran, directly or indirectly, began to stage attacks at strategic moments. The current scenario has led analysts to coin the term “a new Yom Kippur.”

What triggered the new conflict?

In April 2025, a coordinated missile and drone attack targeted strategic facilities in Israel. The Israeli government directly blamed Iran, which in turn claimed to be reacting to “constant provocations” from Tel Aviv and the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.

The turning point, however, was the Israeli response, with unprecedented air strikes on Iranian soil. This led to the indirect involvement of powers such as the US, Russia and China, raising the risk of a regional conflict turning into a proxy war.

Immediate effects on the world

1. High oil prices

With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, the price of a barrel of oil exceeded 120 dollars (MAJIDI, 2025), severely impacting import-dependent economies, including in Latin America.

2. Humanitarian crisis

Thousands of civilians in Israel, Lebanon, Iran and Syria have already been displaced. The UN estimates that there will be more than 600,000 refugees by June 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

3. Cyber attacks

Both countries have been the protagonists of massive digital attacks. Hospitals, banks and transport systems have been paralyzed in Israel, while Tehran has reported sabotage of its electrical infrastructure (KATZ; LEVY, 2025).

Repercussions in the Americas

Despite the geographical distance, the impact is felt strongly on the American continent:

United States: Biden, who will be replaced by Trump in January 2025, has already authorized the sending of reinforcements to the Eastern Mediterranean. Trump is trying to balance support for Israel with his nationalist rhetoric of “America First”.

Brazil: Dependence on fossil fuels and fertilizers imported from the Middle East has driven up agricultural costs. The Brazilian government, although neutral, is under pressure to take a clear position.

Argentina, Chile and Mexico: They are observing with caution, fearing instability in the commodities and energy markets, as well as possible indirect migration flows.

Global escalation risks

According to the International Crisis Group, there are at least five points of escalation:

1. Direct involvement of the US or Russia.

2. Hezbollah's military reaction from Lebanon.

3. Hamas actions in Gaza.

4. Support of nuclear powers for Iran (such as China or North Korea).

5. Proliferation of weapons and increase in attacks outside the Middle East.

The role of social media and disinformation

The conflict is also unfolding on the digital plane. Fake videos, manipulated images and conspiracy theories are going viral on social media. Platforms such as X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok are being accused of enabling war propaganda.

The war of narratives proves to be as dangerous as missiles.

Possible paths: is there a way out?

Despite the escalation, there are diplomatic efforts led by the UN, Turkey and even Brazil, which is seeking to regain its leading role on the international stage. Experts point out that without dialogue between Tehran and Tel Aviv, there will only be more destruction.

Lasting peace will only be possible with:

Mutual recognition of sovereignties.

Impartial mediation of non-aligned powers.

Strengthening international institutions.

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Conclusion

A new Yom Kippur in 2025 reveals not only the continuity of old conflicts, but the complexity of the multipolar world we live in. The Iran vs. Israel clash is no longer just about the Middle East: it is a dispute with a direct impact on the global economy, geopolitics and cybersecurity.

In times of war and uncertainty, access to reliable information and support for independent media, such as Bom Dia América, become essential for building a critical opinion.

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References

KATZ, Yossi; LEVY, Jonathan. Cyberwars: Israel vs Iran. Tel Aviv: Harper, 2025.

MAJIDI, Reza. Oil and the Gulf: Crises and Responses. Tehran: Azadi Publishing House, 2025.

UNHCR – United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Middle East Displacement Report – 2025. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP. Flashpoints in the Middle East. Available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org

UN News. “Iran-Israel attacks heighten international tensions”. 2025. Available at: https://news.un.org