How to Neutralize the Use of the Doctrine of Unpredictability and the Madman Theory in the Americas?

Illustration of two political leaders on a chessboard, one acting in a calculated manner and the other in apparent disarray, representing the madman theory and the doctrine of unpredictability in the Americas.

Introduction

The contemporary geopolitical scenario in the Americas has witnessed the increasing use of discursive and legal strategies such as the Doctrine of Unpredictability and the Madman Theory to justify unilateral actions, contractual breaches and even authoritarian measures. These approaches, although recognized in extreme contexts, have been repeatedly used by political and economic leaders with detrimental effects on institutional predictability and regional stability.

But how can we neutralize these resources, which are often used as shields for abuse of power or strategic manipulation?

1. Understanding Key Concepts

Doctrine of Unpredictability

Known in Law as the "theory of unforeseeability", this doctrine justifies the review or termination of contractual obligations in the face of extraordinary and unforeseeable events. However, its trivialization can lead to legal uncertainty.

Madman Theory

Popularized by former US President Richard Nixon, the "madman theory" consists of acting in seemingly irrational ways to destabilize adversaries and gain strategic advantages. This behavior, when replicated by populist leaders, can generate serious diplomatic and economic consequences.

According to Kissinger (1979), unpredictability can function as a deterrent, but its prolonged use undermines international trust.

2. Political Use in Latin America and the USA

Current leaders such as those of the US, El Salvador and Venezuela have been associated with strategies that combine unpredictability with extreme attitudes to maintain power or obtain international concessions.

In the legal field, governments have invoked the doctrine of unpredictability to suspend contracts with private companies, hindering foreign investment. This is visible in sectors such as energy, infrastructure and technology.

3. Risks to Regional Stability

• Legal uncertainty: drives away international investors.

• Institutional crisis: erosion of trust between powers.

• Authoritarian populism: rulers use these doctrines to legitimize anti-democratic measures.

According to the Inter-American Development Bank (2023), legal instability is one of the main factors that reduce economic competitiveness in the region.

4. How to Neutralize these Strategies?

a) Strengthening Democratic Institutions

Strengthening independent institutions, such as the judiciary and audit courts, reduces the space for arbitrary decisions.

b) Creation of Anti-Populism Clauses in Regional Agreements

Multilateral agreements, such as those of Mercosur and USMCA, must include mechanisms that punish the systematic breaking of rules under generic justifications of unpredictability.

c) Government Transparency

Adoption of blockchain for the registration of public contracts increases traceability and makes unilateral changes difficult under the pretext of crisis or tactical madness.

d) Media and Active Civil Society

Information campaigns and citizen vigilance are crucial to unmasking abuses that hide behind these discourses.

Transparency International points out that countries with greater civic engagement are less susceptible to unpredictable governments.

5. The Role of Big Techs and Legal Startups

Platforms such as JusBrasil , LegalHub and ConjurTech can help monitor abusive legislative changes, informing the population and investors.

Legal startups should offer contractual risk alerts , AI for judicial predictability and mapping of populist actions in real time.

6. Success Stories

• Chile: After the 2019 crisis, the country underwent a constitutional restructuring with strong popular participation.

• Costa Rica: maintains institutional stability even in economic crises, with solid transparency policies.

  
  

  

  Infographic comparing madman theory and doctrine of unpredictability.

  

  Map of America with hotspots of institutional instability.

  
  

  

  Political cartoon about populist leaders wearing crazy masks

  
  

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Conclusion

Counteracting the misuse of the Doctrine of Unpredictability and the Madman Theory requires coordinated action between civil society, democratic governments, the media, and technology. It is necessary to demystify these strategies, push for clear rules, and strengthen the mechanisms that guarantee predictability and justice in the Americas.

Predictability is the soil of freedom — without it, every democracy slides into authoritarianism.

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📚 References

1. KISSINGER, Henry. Diplomacy . 1st ed. Rio de Janeiro: Objetiva, 1995.

   (Discussion on deterrence strategies and unpredictability in the geopolitical scenario)

2. INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK. Economic Report 2023: Stability and Growth in Latin America . Washington, DC, 2023. Available at: https://www.iadb.org . Accessed: July 7, 2025.

3. TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL. Corruption Perceptions Index 2023 . Berlin, 2023. Available at: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023 . Accessed: July 7, 2025.

4. NIXON, Richard. RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon . New York: Simon & Schuster, 1978.

   (Origin of the expression “madman theory” – theory of the madman)

5. SARLET, Ingo Wolfgang. Fundamental Rights and Justice . 6th ed. Porto Alegre: Livraria do Advogado, 2011.

   (Theoretical basis for legal analysis of the doctrine of unpredictability)

6. PEREIRA, Caio Mário da Silva. Institutions of Civil Law . 23rd ed. Rio de Janeiro: Forense, 2020.

   (Discussion on contracts and theory of unpredictability)

7. USMCA. United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement . Full Text, 2020. Available at: https://ustr.gov/usmca . Accessed: July 7, 2025.

8. CHILEAN CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY. Proposal for a New Constitution of Chile . Santiago, 2022. Available at: https://www.chileconvencion.cl . Accessed: July 7, 2025.