🌍 Global Finance in 2025: What's at stake in the world economy and politics?

Mapa mundial ilustrando fluxos comerciais, tarifas e tensões geopolíticas em 2025

Persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions and Donald Trump's return to the White House are shaping the course of the global economy. Understand the risks, trends and opportunities you need to know.

🌍 Current Economic Outlook

• Slower, fragmented growth The World Bank revised its global growth forecast to 2.3% in 2025 — the lowest since the 1960s, excluding crises — due to trade tensions and rising tariffs, which are impacting investment and confidence.

• Inflation and its persistent effects Even if trends ease, high energy and food costs remain. Oil price shocks — mainly influenced by conflicts in the Middle East — increase global inflation risks.

• Restrictive monetary policy Faced with persistent inflation and unpredictable shocks, central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) are showing caution, postponing interest rate cuts and favoring monetary stability.

• Uneven regional development Emerging markets face slower growth, while developed economies struggle with divergent policies and weak investment .

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📈 Political and Geopolitical Scenarios

1. Trade tensions and tariffs

Protectionist initiatives, mainly from the US, raise tariffs by up to 50%, putting pressure on countries such as Mexico, Canada and China. Regulatory uncertainty paralyzes multilateral negotiations.

2. Conflicts in the Middle East

Tensions between Israel and Iran reverberate in oil prices. High volatility impacts markets, inflation and monetary policies.

3. Rise of new powers

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea form the so-called “axis of upheaval”, questioning Western hegemony and redefining global alliances.

4. 🏛️ The New Old President: Trump 2.0

The election of Donald Trump in November 2024 and his inauguration on January 20, 2025 marked the return of a strongly nationalist agenda to the White House.

What changes with Trump in power again?

Tariffs and trade protectionism are back on the agenda: Chinese, Mexican and even European-allied products face new taxes.

Tax reform in the US aims to cut taxes for large companies and strengthen the local industrial sector.

Withdrawal from multilateral agreements has already begun: Trump suspended US participation in environmental and trade treaties signed in 2023-2024 (NYT, 2025).

Markets react cautiously: the S&P 500 has been operating with high volatility since January, and emerging markets are suffering from capital flight.

5. High debt and fiscal fragility

Deficits in developed countries, exacerbated by post-pandemic spending, limit the capacity to respond to crises — requiring tighter fiscal policies.

🔎 Emerging Trends and Risks

Trend	Impact
Energy geopolitics	Oil fluctuations influence inflation and unemployment ft.com
Accelerated digitization	Acceleration of AI, fintechs and Industry 4.0 changes productivity and employment
Resilience and adaptation	Fiscal policies, energy transition and institutional stability will be crucial
Social protection and inequality	Key challenges in developing countries with persistent inflation and debt

🎯 Opportunities for Investors and Businesses

1. Geographical diversification Explore markets less subject to tariffs (Asia, Africa), linked to regional growth.

2. Hedge assets Gold and commodities emerge as hedges; index funds and fixed income perform better in volatile scenarios blogs.cfainstitute.org .

3. Innovation and technology Fintechs, AI and digital infrastructure will continue to grow, above the global average.

4. ESG Maturity Responsible and sustainable investments gain traction in the face of climate and sociodemographic pressures.

   
   

📚 Recommended Readings and Tools

Explore these books to deepen your understanding of the economic landscape:

• Doughnut Economics – Innovative proposals for regenerative economics by Kate Raworth. (affiliate link: ancafa1968-20)

• Esquematizado Collection: Microeconomics 4th Ed. – Solid foundation in microeconomics, ideal for students and professionals.

• AP Microeconomics/Macroecon Practice Test – Practical tool with tests and reviews, useful for those who want to master the subject.

🔗 Useful Links

• World Bank – World Economic Outlook Summary of global economic projections imf.org .

• IMF – World Economic Outlook Update (Jan/Apr 2025) Analysis of inflation, rate cuts and risks imf.org .

• CFA Institute – Tariffs and Geopolitics Direct relationship between politics and the market

🧠 Conclusion

In 2025, the world faces a scenario dominated by slow growth, resilient inflation, and political uncertainty . However, technological advances and emerging markets offer windows of opportunity. The key is attention to geopolitical risks , strategic planning , and adaptability .

If you are looking for a channel with practical and direct insights , follow the Bom dia América blog — your support here It is essential for us to continue producing quality content!

References:

WORLD BANK. Global Economic Prospects – June 2025 . Washington, DC: World Bank Publications, 2025. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects . Accessed: June 16, 2025.

IMF – INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. World Economic Outlook: Uneven and Uncertain . Washington, DC, April 2025. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO . Accessed: June 16, 2025.

NEW YORK TIMES. Trump Begins Second Term With Bold Economic Moves . New York, Jan. 22, 2025. Available at:https://www.nytimes.com . Accessed: Jun. 16, 2025.

RAWORTH, Kate. Donut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist . São Paulo: Zahar, 2022.

ZHANG, Wei. Geopolitical Risks and Global Markets . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024.