Anchoring: Trump's Tactic to Impose Tariffs on Friendly Nations
- Antonio Carlos Faustino
- Jul 23
- 3 min read
What is anchoring in negotiation?
Anchoring is a cognitive bias and persuasion technique used to influence decision-making based on an initial reference point—the "anchor." This point sets expectations regarding price, concessions, and even limits in commercial negotiations. It is a common technique in sales, auctions, and, increasingly, in economic diplomacy .
According to Kahneman (2012), our brains tend to cling to the first value presented and adjust their decisions based on it, even if it's illogical or disproportionate. In international negotiations, anchoring can shape entire agreements.
Trump's Negotiation Tactic: Aggressive Anchoring
During his presidency, Donald Trump used anchoring as a central tool of his trade policy. He made extremely tough demands—such as sky-high tariffs or threats of sanctions—even when dealing with nations friendly to the United States such as Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Japan, and the European Union.
The goal: to make any minor concession seem reasonable and beneficial.
Emblematic cases:
NAFTA vs. USMCA – By threatening to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Trump anchored the negotiations in uncertainty and imminent losses. This forced Canada and Mexico to accept profound changes to the new agreement: the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).
Tariffs on steel and aluminum (2018) – Countries like Brazil, historic allies, were surprised by tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. By launching these unilateral measures, Trump pressured partners to renegotiate more advantageous terms for the US.
European Union and cars – Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on European cars. The strategy aimed to increase bargaining leverage and put Europeans on the defensive.
Why does this technique work?
The power of anchoring lies in controlling the narrative. By imposing high initial tariffs, Trump made any more moderate alternative a "win" for his partners—even if they were still harmful.
This negotiation technique is especially effective when:
There is an imbalance of power between the negotiators;
The business partner wishes to maintain friendly relations;
There is political or economic pressure to close deals quickly.
Furthermore, Trump combined anchoring with aggressive rhetoric on Twitter, which generated public pressure and market volatility—a chess game with media pieces.
Criticism and consequences of Trumpist anchoring
Although effective, this approach has drawn widespread criticism. Many analysts argue that Trump has undermined the trust of historic allies , weakened multilateralism, and given China the opportunity to present itself as a more stable trade alternative.
“Trump's trade policy was guided by coercion rather than cooperation.” (Bown & Irwin, 2020)
The imposition of tariffs has harmed strategic sectors of the American economy, such as:
Agriculture (due to Chinese and European retaliation);
Industries dependent on imported inputs;
Geopolitical relations in the long term.
Negotiation technique as a diplomatic weapon
More than an economic maneuver, anchoring has become, in Trump's hands, a diplomatic weapon . He has demonstrated that even friendly nations can be subject to pressure if they don't follow U.S. commercial interests.
This set a new standard in international negotiations, encouraging other leaders to adopt similar stances, as we saw with Boris Johnson on Brexit or López Obrador vis-à-vis the US.
What can we learn from this?
Negotiation techniques shape the real world – The use of anchoring by political leaders shows that these tactics are not exclusive to the corporate world.
Negotiating with major powers requires preparation – Nations need to invest in strategic diplomacy and communication to withstand pressure.
Cognitive bias is ever-present – Even in rational negotiations, decisions are shaped by perception and context.
Products indicated for deepening
📘 Book: "Thinking, Fast and Slow" – Daniel Kahneman Buy on Amazon
Understand the cognitive biases behind anchoring. Essential reading.
🎧 Course: Negotiation Techniques for Diplomacy and Politics (Hotmart) View on Hotmart
Learn advanced strategies used by world leaders.
📙 Book: "The Art of the Deal" – Michael Wheeler (Harvard) Buy on Amazon
Practical manual with real-world examples.
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References
BOWN, Chad P.; IRWIN, Douglas A. Trump's Trade War: An Assessment . Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2020.
KAHNEMAN, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow . Rio de Janeiro: Objetiva, 2012.
WHEELER, Michael. The Art of the Deal . São Paulo: HSM, 2016.
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