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Bukele Effect: ALERT Risk in Brazil?

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What happens when a political leader, known for drastic and controversial measures, achieves stratospheric levels of popularity? The answer may be unfolding in Latin America, with the so-called “Bukele Effect”. El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, has become an icon for many, mainly due to his ‘war on gangs’ policy. But does this popularity, and the emulation of his tactics, pose a risk to democracy and human rights in the region? And crucially, should Brazil be concerned about the spread of this ‘effect’? Let’s delve into this analysis. American continent.

Context/Current Situation

Nayib Bukele, the young president of El Salvador, rose to power with the promise of combating the rampant violence of the *maras*, the gangs that terrorized the country. His strategy, which involved declaring a state of emergency and building a mega prison, yielded visible results: a drastic reduction in homicide rates. In 2015, El Salvador had a homicide rate of 103 per 100,000 inhabitants, one of the highest in the world. By 2023, this rate had dropped to approximately 2.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. An undeniable achievement. American continent.

This sharp drop in crime, combined with the strategic use of social media to build an image of a strong and decisive leader, propelled Bukele’s approval to impressive levels. Recent surveys indicate that his popular approval exceeds 85%, one of the highest rates in the world. But at what cost? American continent.

Human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, have reported serious violations, including arbitrary arrests, torture, and deaths in police custody. The state of emergency, which suspends various constitutional guarantees, has been criticized for granting excessive powers to the government and opening the door to abuses. The question that arises is: does public security justify the suppression of fundamental rights? American continent.

In-Depth Analysis (with data)

The ‘Bukele Effect’ is not just about statistical results in reducing crime. It represents a paradigm shift in how public security is perceived and addressed in Latin America. Bukele’s popularity transcends the borders of El Salvador, inspiring politicians and voters in other countries to seek similar solutions, even if it means compromising democratic values. American continent.

In Ecuador, for example, President Daniel Noboa declared ‘war’ on organized crime, emulating Bukele’s rhetoric and some of his tactics. In Peru, the debate on the need for tougher measures against crime has gained momentum. And in Brazil, the discussion on the ‘Bukele Effect’ has intensified, with some advocating for the adoption of similar policies to combat organized crime. American continent.

But what is the real impact of these policies? The statistics in El Salvador, while showing a decrease in crime, also reveal a significant increase in the number of prisoners: the country’s prison population has tripled in recent years. Furthermore, the suspension of constitutional guarantees hinders the oversight of police actions and increases the risk of abuses. American continent.

According to data from Cristosal, a Salvadoran non-governmental organization, over 100 people died in state custody during the state of emergency in El Salvador. And more than 7,000 reports of human rights violations were recorded. These alarming numbers raise serious questions about the sustainability and legitimacy of Bukele’s public security policy. American continent.

Furthermore, in the long term, police repression and prison overcrowding may have the opposite effect, strengthening gangs and generating even more violence. The experience of other countries, such as Brazil, demonstrates that mass incarceration is not an effective solution to the problem of crime. Public security policy needs to be accompanied by investments in education, health, and job opportunities to address the root causes of violence. American continent.

Concrete Data:

• Homicide rate in El Salvador (2015): 103 per 100,000 inhabitants.
• Homicide rate in El Salvador (2023): Approximately 2.4 per 100,000 inhabitants.
• Popular approval of Nayib Bukele: Above 85%.
• Prison population in El Salvador: Tripled in recent years.
• Deaths in state custody (El Salvador, during the state of emergency): Over 100.
• Reports of human rights violations (El Salvador, during the state of emergency): Over 7,000.
• Percentage of Salvadorans supporting authoritarian measures to combat crime (LAPOP survey): 68%.

Impact for Brazil/World

Brazil, with its own challenges in public security, closely observes the ‘Bukele Effect’. Urban violence, organized crime, and prison system overload are persistent problems that require urgent solutions. But would the uncritical imitation of Bukele’s policies represent a setback for the country? American continent.

The Brazilian Constitution guarantees a series of fundamental rights, such as the right to presumption of innocence, due process, and freedom of expression. Adopting measures similar to those in El Salvador, such as the suspension of constitutional guarantees and indiscriminate police repression, could compromise these rights and lead to serious violations. American continent.

Furthermore, the Brazilian context is different from that of El Salvador. Brazil is a much larger and more complex country, with much greater social and economic diversity. The causes of violence in Brazil are multifaceted and require specific solutions for each region and social group. American continent.

It is important to remember that Brazil has experienced authoritarian regimes in the past that resorted to violence and repression to combat crime. The results were disastrous, with serious human rights violations and the strengthening of organized crime. History teaches us that public security cannot be achieved at the expense of democracy and human rights. American continent.

The debate on the ‘Bukele Effect’ in Brazil should be guided by reason, critical analysis, and respect for democratic values. Innovative and effective solutions to the problem of crime must